Winter is coming – but for Melbourne’s property market, that doesn’t have to mean tough times ahead. While April was the quietest we’ve seen in years, thanks to a late Easter, public holidays, school breaks and the election, the months ahead offer genuine opportunities for buyers and sellers who know how to read the signals and prepare.
Rather than fearing a lean winter, I see this as a period of pent-up demand and positive buyer sentiment, especially with two interest rate cuts already this year.
With supply set to tighten further, those willing to do the groundwork now – monitoring key market indicators and getting their finances and strategy in order – will be best placed to move quickly when the right opportunity appears.
Why was autumn so quiet?
April and early autumn were particularly subdued this year. With a late Easter, a string of public holidays, school breaks, and the election all landing in quick succession, combined capitals saw the lowest April auction volumes since 2019, according to Cotality.
Many vendors held back, knowing their campaigns would be interrupted and properties wouldn’t present at their best. As a result, buyers faced slim pickings and transaction numbers dropped.
But this doesn’t mean buyers have lost confidence. In fact, two interest rate cuts earlier this year have buoyed sentiment. While supply is expected to remain tight through winter, that only means more pent-up demand is building beneath the surface.
Why vendors wait for spring
There’s a reason most vendors bide their time through winter. Properties look better in spring, gardens are in bloom, and there’s more foot traffic at opens. But getting a property ready for sale isn’t a quick job. There are leases to consider, agents to interview, contracts to prepare, and presentation to perfect.
That’s why so many sellers will use this winter to get their ducks in a row, aiming to launch their campaign when the market traditionally surges.
Buyers: Don’t hibernate – get ahead
While many casual buyers drop away in the colder months, the savvy stay active. These are the buyers who know that a quieter market can mean less competition and the chance to secure a property before the full spring rush.
But to take advantage, you need to be prepared – finance sorted, legal advice lined up, and inspections ready to go.
Five market signals to watch this winter
If you’re planning to buy or sell in the next few months, winter is your research and preparation season. Here’s what I recommend tracking:
1. Open for inspection numbers:
Don’t just rely on online stats – get out and attend opens yourself. Talk to agents about genuine buyer numbers. Even with fewer properties and less foot traffic, strong numbers signal underlying demand. If you notice open numbers rising week to week, that’s a sign the market is warming up.
2. Auction clearance rates:
When considering auction clearance rates, start with the general rule of thumb:
- Below 60% indicates a buyer’s market, where buyers have the upper hand
- 60-70% suggests a balanced market
- Above 70% points to a seller’s market, where competition is strong.
However, don’t stop at the headline percentage. For real insight, attend auctions yourself and observe the number of genuine bidders.
There’s a significant difference between a property that sells with just one bidder and one that attracts three or four active bidders. The depth of bidding gives you a much clearer picture of true demand than the clearance rate alone.
3. Time on market:
Watch how quickly well-located, well-presented homes are selling. Shorter selling times – particularly for private sales – are a sure sign of strong demand. If time on market starts dropping, buyers are ready to move.
4. Comparable sales:
Track recent results for properties similar to what you want to buy or sell. Even small shifts in price or competition can reveal where the market is heading.
For example, in Fairfield, two similar properties sold a month apart – one for $1.67 million, the next for $1.855 million – simply because more buyers were in the market the second time around.
This is a clear sign of how quickly demand can shift and prices can rise.
5. Industry commentary:
Read widely but critically. Media and expert commentary can be sensationalised or influenced by vested interests.
Always look for data-backed claims and focus on local, evidence-based insights. Don’t get caught up in the headlines – dig into what’s really happening in your target suburbs.
Preparation is power
Winter presents a strategic window to get ahead of the competition.
For buyers, that means organising your finances, lining up legal and building inspection support, and knowing exactly what you want. When the right property appears, you’ll be able to act quickly – often ahead of the competition.
For vendors, use this time to observe buyer profiles and activity in your area. Start planning your pricing strategy, method of sale (auction vs. private), and how you’ll present your property to stand out when spring arrives.
ON GROUND CASE STUDY
Poised and ready to pounce
Recently, I worked with a client who was determined to secure an investment-grade property as his first home.
He took a disciplined approach, spending several weeks closely monitoring key market indicators – tracking price movements, attending inspections, and keeping an eye on comparable sales.
We discussed the importance of being ready to act quickly when the right opportunity presented itself, and he made sure all his finances and due diligence were in order.
When a well-positioned little house in Hawthorn came onto the market, his preparation paid off. Because we were able to move decisively, we caught other interested buyers off guard and secured the property within the quoted price range – an advantageous result in a tightening market.
With settlement approaching and the market showing signs of renewed activity, my client is now set to benefit from any upswing, having locked in a quality asset ahead of the curve.
Take Home Message
Winter isn’t a time to sit on your hands. It’s the season to monitor, prepare, and position yourself for the next wave of opportunity.
Whether you’re buying or selling, the groundwork you lay now will put you in the strongest position when the market inevitably shifts.
Don’t wait for spring to get ready – start now, and you’ll be ready to act when the right moment arrives.
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